Coronavirus algorithm adds 1.7m more people to England's shielding list

England’s shielding list has just got longer with another 1.7 million people added to it after researchers at Oxford University developed a new algorithm to identify who is most at risk of severe disease or death from COVID-19.

A new risk prediction tool, called QCovid, assessed people's age, health conditions, ethnicity, body mass index and postcode (to detect deprivation areas) before identifying that an extra 1.7 million people should be shielding and not leave their house to protect themselves from COVID-19.

Those within this group who are aged over 70 will have already been invited for coronavirus vaccination. That leaves 820,000 adults aged between 19-69-years-old who will now be prioritised for vaccination.

The 1.7 million people identified brings the number of individuals on England's shielding list to almost four million.

Individuals on the shielding list are currently advised to shield until 31 March.

Those on the shielding list will receive a letter from the NHS advising them to stay inside their homes and they will receive medicine deliveries, priority slots for supermarkets and statutory sick pay.

Everyone on the list will also be prioritised for vaccination.

Dr Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer for England, said: “For the first time, we are able to go even further in protecting the most vulnerable in our communities. This new model is a tribute to our health and technology researchers.

"As we learn more about COVID-19, we're continuously reviewing the evidence... it was very clear that not all of those individuals who were at risk were identified by the binary approach."

Referring to the 1.7 million identified, she said: "The [NHS] letter will note that this is more likely to be an overestimate of risk in a way which hopefully handles any of their anxiety".

She said the letter “makes it absolutely clear that it is a choice for them if they choose to follow shielding advice or not - that has always been the case".

Some 799 COVID-related deaths and 10,625 more positive cases were reported in the UK in the last 24 hours, government data reveals. In total, 118,195 people have died within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test. 15.5 million doses of the vaccine have been given out.

Commenting on the news, a Royal College of Physicians spokesperson said: “The adoption of this risk assessment model by the NHS will play an important role in supporting clinicians and patients with conversations about COVID-19 and enable decisions to be made with a greater understanding of personal risk."

On Twitter, the charity Sense (@sensecharity) tweeted: 'Many of these adults will already have been shielding, without sufficient recognition. It's right that they are prioritised for vaccination and additional support.

'We hope that today's announcement will provide clarity about those at higher risk'.